Islam Makhachev is running things back with Alexander Volkanovski this weekend in Abu Dhabi as the main event of UFC 294, with the featherweight champion stepping in on just 12 days’ notice. In the co-main event, former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman also answers the short notice call, jumping in against Khamzat Chimaev in a bout for a middleweight title shot. Plus, some other fights go down this week, so without further ado, let’s get into the best.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Straight Bets
Alexander Volkanovski, +210
I wrote a comprehensive breakdown of this fight already, so I’m not going to dive in too deep on this, but the general gist is simple: on paper, this is a tall order for Volkanovski. He’s coming into enemy territory, up a weight class, off of surgery, and on just a few days’ notice to fight a guy who just beat him eight months ago. None of that bodes well for him. Even so, the first fight was extremely competitive and this one will very likely be the same, and so this is an excellent price to get for a man who some people believe (incorrectly) won the first encounter. (I also don’t mind a Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ prop bet at +500).
Kamaru Usman, +260
I won’t lie, I liked this bet a lot better before Fight Week. I don’t put much stock in the Usman knee injury rumors (partly because he’s had bad knees forever) but he looks to be decidedly smaller than Chimaev. That being said, I was always of the opinion that Usman was the toughest fight for Chimaev stylistically (and this is coming from a man who ranked Chimaev as the top welterweight in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings). He has exceptional takedown defense and a crisp jab, and that honestly is enough to upend the Chimaev hype train. If Chimaev can’t impose his physicality and get takedowns, he’s a limited striker and Usman can jab him up, and maybe even land the big right hand behind it. This is another value bet.
Tim Elliott, +330
I am on the record on this very website saying that Muhammad Mokaev will one day become the UFC flyweight champion and possibly even the bantamweight champion. I still believe that. But the 23-year-old wunderkind still has a lot of developing to do and Elliott is the exact sort of weird opponent that can give him big problems. Mokaev’s bread has been buttered in the UFC with a smother top-position game, and Elliott thrives in creating funky scrambles. Mokaev may be up to the task and simply win those scrambles all night long, but that’s a huge price to pay on him, and Elliott is decent value.
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Prop Bets
Magomed Ankalaev To Win By KO/TKO/DQ, +100
Johnny Walker is in the middle of a nice little run right now, but it stops here. Ankalaev probably should be the UFC’s light heavyweight champion right now (or at least fighting for the title) and is likely the actual best light heavyweight in the world. Walker is a wild card, but that’s also not ideal against someone like Ankalaev who can counter very well. When Walker loses, it tends to be because he runs into the offense of his opponent, and I expect that very thing will happen on Saturday.
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Parlay of the Week
Anyone who reads this column regularly knows there are few things I like more than a good parlay gimmick, and this week, there are tons available. There’s the Muhammad/Mohammad Parlay (Mokaev, Muhammad Naimov, Mohammad Yahya), the Combat Sambo World Champion Parlay (Makhachev, Ankalaev, Ikram Aliskerov, Muin Gafarov) and the Tajikistan Parlay (Muin Gafarov and Muhammad Naimov), but I’m choosing to go with the Magomed Parlay.
Magomed Ankalaev, -355
As noted above, Ankalaev is probably the best 205er in the world and his defense means that even Walker’s chaotic form of violence is probably mitigated.
Said Nurmagomedov, -225
Said is the weirdest Nurmagomedov in part because he isn’t related to the others and because he primarily strikes. Perhaps as a result, he’s not as good as the other Nurms, but he’s still an exceedingly capable fighter and Muin Gafarov is very underwhelming. Nurmagomedov’s kicks should carry the day.
Shara Magomedov, -305
You don’t often see fighters making their UFC debuts as this big of favorites when facing solid opposition, but Magomedov deserves to be. Though there are personal issues outside the cage, the 29-year-old Russian is an excellent prospect with 10 of his 11 career wins (zero losses) coming by way of knockout. Man can thump. Bruno Silva is in trouble.
Parlay these three bets together for -110 odds.
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Long Shot of the Week
Parlay Alexander Volkanovski and Kamaru Usman at +1016 odds
Again, there are few things I love more in this world than a gimmick parlay and, in the words of Lieutenant Aldo Raine, “this just might be my masterpiece.” I’m calling it the 12-Days-Notice-Up-A-Weight-Class-Top-20-All-Time-Fighter Parlay (or T12DNUAPWCT20ATF Parlay, for short) and really, the name says it all.
Is this good gambling? No. Absolutely not. But boy it sure it fun.
Wrap Up
We were sooooo close to cashing our first Long Shot last week. If Edson Barboza just punches Sodiq Yusuff instead of going for that choke, we may have done it. Alas, the search continues.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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